A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
